Confirmation Bias
Read Mark 14:53-65
They took Jesus to the high priest, and all the chief priests, the elders and the teachers of the law came together. –Mark 14:53
Imagine the CEO of a company has a new idea for a product or service that they believe will generate revenue. So they commission a team to research the market, to see if there is interest or demand for their idea. Now the CEO is already invested in the idea, and probably wants to hear a report that confirms its brilliance. The research team, aware of which direction the CEO is leaning, is likely to present findings that support his idea (otherwise, they might lose their jobs). The CEO can then claim to the company’s investors that they had done “due diligence” in researching the market before launching their new product. But did they really examine all the available evidence?
This is an example of what social psychologists call “confirmation bias”—our tendency to seek out, interpret, and remember data that confirms what we already think and believe. Note the three verbs in the definition—each reveals a different way confirmation bias works. First, it affects what we seek—we tend to look for evidence that supports, rather than contradicts, our positions. Secondly, if the evidence tends to be ambiguous (if it could be understood in more than one way), we naturally interpret events according to our pre-conceived understanding. Finally, we tend to remember those things which confirm our beliefs (and discard from our memory those details that might challenge us).
Confirmation bias is not evil. It is present in all of our decision-making. But because confirmation bias blinds us to parts of reality that don’t fit our preconceived notions, it can sometimes lead to disastrous decisions. If you want a clear example of confirmation bias in action, consider Jesus’ trial before the Sanhedrin.
The religious leaders of Israel were absolutely convinced that Jesus was a dangerous threat. They believed him to be a heretic who consistently flouted not just their authority, but the authority of the Torah itself. All they needed was evidence to back up their beliefs. The evidence they found, though, was contradictory at best. They brought in witness after witness to testify against Jesus. These witnesses twisted and misrepresented the things that Jesus had said. But most notably, the witnesses contradicted each other—they were not reliable sources of truth.
Notice also that the religious leaders were only interested in witnesses who would testify against Jesus. They invited no one who had been healed by Jesus or who had witnessed one of his miracles. They did not listen to anyone who was sympathetic to his teaching. They sought out only testimony that would incriminate Jesus, and they interpreted Jesus’ statements in the worst possible way, in order to confirm their belief that he was a heretic.
Finally, the chief priest asked Jesus directly if he was the Messiah. Jesus had remained silent until this point, allowing the witnesses to trip over themselves. But at this point, Jesus’ answer was clear and direct: I am, he said. And you will see the Son of Man sitting at the right hand of the Mighty One and coming on the clouds of heaven.
At this, the high priests tore his clothes and said to the council: “Why do we need any more witnesses? You have heard his blasphemy! What do you think?” As one, the remaining seventy members of the Sanhedrin condemned Jesus as worthy of death. The irony is that Jesus was speaking the truth to the chief priest, as plainly and openly as he could. But the judgment the religious leaders had already made about Jesus blinded them to the truth.
The world requires us to make judgments. Anytime we cast a vote, or make a hire, or choose a doctor, or listen to a news report, or trust a friend, in all these situations, we must make a judgment about another human being. We hope to be people of good judgment, but we all get it wrong from time to time. I am sure all of us can recall a time when we’ve made a poor judgment about a situation or a person, and paid dearly for that failure in judgment.
The Bible is clear that there is only One who is able to see what is in the human heart. Only One who is able to judge without any bias, crookedness, or self-interest. Psalm 9 declares: “The Lord reigns forever; he has established his throne for judgment. He rules the world in righteousness and judges the peoples with equity.” (vv. 8-9, italics added)
While our judgments will never be perfect, one thing we can do is seek humility in the judgments we make. We can remember that there are multiple ways to see and understand any situation, and we can strive to remain open to considering viewpoints or arguments that challenge the conclusions we’ve made. Above all, we must appeal to the great Judge above to guide our decisions, to reveal to us our errors, and to supply grace in our mistakes. And we can trust that even when we get it wrong, He is working to set all things right.
Help me to be slow and cautious in the judgments I make, O Lord, especially when I am tempted to condemn. Remind me that You alone possess the authority and righteousness to condemn, and yet You choose grace. Be gracious, O Lord, in all those times I get it wrong. Amen.